Citi: World economy seems trapped in ‘death spiral’

Yes it is.-Lou

Citi: World economy seems trapped in ‘death spiral’

The global economy seems trapped in a “death spiral” that could lead to further weakness in oil prices, recession and a serious equity bear market, Citi strategists have warned.

Some analysts — including those at Citi — have turned bearish on the world economy this year, following an equity rout in January and weaker economic data out of China and the U.S.

“The world appears to be trapped in a circular reference death spiral,” Citi strategists led by Jonathan Stubbs said in a report on Thursday.

“Stronger U.S. dollar, weaker oil/commodity prices, weaker world trade/petrodollar liquidity, weaker EM (and global growth)… and repeat. Ad infinitum, this would lead to Oilmageddon, a ‘significant and synchronized’ global recession and a proper modern-day equity bear market.”

Stubbs said that macro strategists at Citi forecast that the dollar would weaken in 2016 and that oil prices were likely bottoming, potentially providing some light at the end of the tunnel.

“The death spiral is in nobody’s interest. Rational behavior, most likely, will prevail,” he said in the report.

Crude oil prices have tumbled by around 70 percent since the middle of 2014, during which time the U.S. dollar has risen by around 20 percent against a basket of currencies. 

The world economy grew by 3.1 percent in 2015 and is projected to accelerate to expand by 3.4 percent in 2016 and 3.6 percent in 2017, according to the International Monetary Fund. The forecast reflects expectations of gradual improvement in countries currently in economic distress, notably Brazil, Russia and some in the Middle East.

By contrast, Citi forecasts the world economy will grow by only 2.7 percent in 2016 having cut its outlook last month.

Overall, advanced economies are mostly making a modest recovery, while many emerging market and developing economies are under strain from the rebalancing of the Chinese economy, lower commodity prices and capital outflows.

Stubbs added that policymakers would likely attempt to “regain credibility” in the coming weeks and months.

“This is fundamental to avoiding a proper/full global recession and dangerous disorder across financial markets. The stakes are high, perhaps higher than they have ever been in the post-World War II era,” he said.

Just 151,000 new jobs were created in January in the U.S., in the latest sign that the world’s biggest economy is slowing. Economists are concerned about an industrial or manufacturing recession in the country, following some warnings from companies in earnings seasons and recent weak manufacturing activity and durable goods orders data.

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The Beast System Arises: The Largest Bank In Norway Calls For The Elimination Of Cash

Coming to your bank soon.-Lou

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The Beast System Arises: The Largest Bank In Norway Calls For The Elimination Of Cash

By Michael Snyder

End Of The American Dream

The biggest bank in Norway is calling for the complete and total elimination of cash. Many local bank branches in Norway already don’t deal in cash, but that is not good enough for DNB. They want a blanket ban on the use of cash, and they are selling this as a way to crack down on criminals and money launderers. But in the end, the truth is that they want to be able to force everyone in society to use the banks and it would enable them to collect fees on almost every transaction. It is an agenda that is being driven by greed, but it could also open the door for great tyranny. Unfortunately, we are not just seeing aggressive movement toward a cashless society in Norway. It is also happening in Sweden, in Denmark and in many other nations all around the globe. The Beast system is rising, and yet very few people out there even seem alarmed by this.

When I first learned about what was happening in Norway, I was absolutely stunned. I have ancestors that came over to America from over there, and I had no idea that this was happening. The following comes from the International Business Times

The largest bank in Norway has called for the country to stop using cash, the Local reported Friday. This comes as the latest move in a country that has been leading the global charge toward electronic money in recent years, with several banks already not offering cash in their branch offices and some industries seeking to cut back on paper currency.

Of course this idea is being sold as something that will be really good for Norwegian society. DNB promises that eliminating cash will help authorities crack down on criminal activity and money laundering. Here is more from the International Business Times

“Today, there is approximately 50 billion kroner in circulation and [the country’s central bank] Norges Bank can only account for 40 percent of its use. That means that 60 percent of money usage is outside of any control. We believe that is due to under-the-table money and laundering,” Trond Bentestuen, a DNB executive, told Norwegian website VG, the Local reported.

There are so many dangers and disadvantages associated with cash, we have concluded that it should be phased out,” he added.

But in addition to catching more criminals, there are many other reasons why governments really like the idea of a cashless society. It would also mean that no financial transaction would escape taxation, and it would also enable them to watch, track and monitor everything that we do much more closely.

And banks would be absolutely thrilled with a cashless society. Every member of society would be forced to use the system, bank runs would be eliminated, and every time we swipe our cards they would collect a fee.

In addition, there would be absolutely no escaping the bank bail-ins that are coming in Europe. If there was no way to pull your money out of the system, there would be no way to avoid the kind of theft that has now been institutionalized by European authorities. I covered the brand new bail-in rules that went into effect in Europe on January 1st, 2016 in a previous article

If you have a bank account anywhere in Europe, you need to read this article. On January 1st, 2016, a new bail-in system will go into effect for all European banks. This new system is based on the Cyprus bank bail-ins that we witnessed a few years ago. If you will remember, money was grabbed from anyone that had more than 100,000 euros in their bank accounts in order to bail out the banks. Now the exact same principles that were used in Cyprus are going to apply to all of Europe.

Sadly, we are now witnessing a major push toward a cashless society all over the planet.

It is happening in China, in India, and all over Europe. In fact, some nations in Europe have already banned cash transactions over a certain level. Here are just a couple of examples

As I have written about previously, cash transactions of more than 2,500 euros have already been banned in Spain, and France and Italy have both banned all cash transactions of more than 1,000 euros.

Little by little, cash is being eradicated, and what we have seen so far is just the beginning. 417 billion cashless transactions were conducted in 2014, and the final number for 2015 is projected to be much higher.

Of course the epicenter for the transition to a cashless society continues to be northern Europe.

Denmark intends to entirely eradicate cash by the year 2030, and the transition to a cashless society in Sweden is now almost complete

Canadians Panic As Food Prices Soar On Collapsing Currency

Canadians Panic As Food Prices Soar On Collapsing Currency

 

It was just yesterday when we documented the continuing slide in the loonie, which is suffering mightily in the face of oil’s inexorable decline.

As regular readers are no doubt acutely aware, Canada is struggling through a dramatic economic adjustment, especially in Alberta, the heart of the country’s oil patch. Amid the ongoing crude carnage the province has seen soaring property crime, rising food bank usage and, sadly, elevated suicide rates, as Albertans struggle to comprehend how things up north could have gone south (so to speak) so quickly.

The plunging loonie “can only serve to worsen the death of the ‘Canadian Dream’” we said on Tuesday.

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As it turns out, we were exactly right.

The currency’s decline is having a pronounced effect on Canadians’ grocery bills. As Bloomberg reminds us, Canada imports around 80% of its fresh fruits and vegetables. When the loonie slides, prices for those goods soar. “With lower-income households tending to spend a larger portion of income on food, this side effect of a soft currency brings them the most acute stress,” Bloomberg continues.

Of course with the layoffs piling up, you can expect more households to fall into the “lower-income” category where they will have to fight to afford things like $3 cucumbers, $8 cauliflower, and $15 Frosted Flakes. Have a look at the following tweets which underscore just how bad it is in Canada’s grocery aisles.

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Listen To This Week’s Radio Show 1-8-16

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The New Year Bear Market Is Here

Major Market Meltdown Under Way

Financial markets worldwide are in free fall the first week of 2016. Last Thursday, New Years Eve the Dow was down 179, a prelude to the start of the new year.

Monday, the first day of 2016, the Dow was slammed lower by 276, a calmer day followed on Tuesday with the Dow rising a mere 10 points. The carnage returned Wednesday as the market sank another 251 points. As I type at 2:30 on Thursday the market losses are accelerating with the Dow down 360 points. That’s a decline of 1056 points in one week (6%).

Now is the time (actually last week) to get into a safe place. The risk of a major market meltdown circa 2008 is growing by the day. 2016 is going to be one for the books……in many ways.

Tip of the day: Do not have significant funds in any major bank (if they have a commercial on national TV or have a stadium named after them). Get out while you still can.

Here are some scary charts.

                              Dow Industrials

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                              S&P 500

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                          NASDAQ 

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                           Even APPLE is cratering

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                           Gold is going up for a change

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Soros: It’s the 2008 crisis all over again

I really don’t like George Soros, I believe he is an evil man but I think he is right.-Lou

Soros: It’s the 2008 crisis all over again

 

Soros: It’s the 2008 crisis all over again 

Billionaire financier George Soros is warning of an impending financial markets crisis as investors around the world were roiled by turmoil in China trade for the second time this week.

Speaking at an economic forum in Sri Lanka’s capital, Colombo, he told an audience that China is struggling to find a new growth model and its currency devaluation is transferring problems to the rest of the world, according to media. He added that a return to rising interest rates was proving difficult for the developing world.

Soros: It’s the 2008 crisis all over again 

The current environment reminded him of the “crisis we had in 2008,” The Sunday Times in Sri Lanka reported on Thursday morning. “China has a major adjustment problem,” he added, according to Bloomberg. “I would say it amounts to a crisis.”

China’s CSI 300 tumbled more than 7 percent in early trade Thursday, again triggering the market’s circuit breaker. As well as roiling sentiment across Asia, it also battered European risk assets with the German DAX down 3.5 percent at 11 a.m. London time.

U.S. stock index futures also indicated a sharply lower open as investors focused on China’s swooning currency and economic slowdown.

China, the biggest economic story of the last 30 years, has soured in the eyes of many analysts. A stock market crash that began in the country last summer has thrown the vast difficulties officials are now facing into sharp relief. A raft of data has disappointed in recent months as the country’s leaders refocus the economy on consumption from manufacturing.

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Most Americans are one paycheck away from the street

America in 2016-Lou

 

 

Most Americans are one paycheck away from the street

Some 63% of people can’t deal with a $500 emergency

MarketWatch

Americans are starting 2016 with more job security, but most are still theoretically only one paycheck away from the street.

Approximately 63% of Americans have no emergency savings for things such as a $1,000 emergency room visit or a $500 car repair, according to a survey released Wednesday of 1,000 adults by personal finance website Bankrate.com, up slightly from 62% last year. Faced with an emergency, they say they would raise the money by reducing spending elsewhere (23%), borrowing from family and/or friends (15%) or using credit cards to bridge the gap (15%).

This lack of emergency savings could be a problem for millions of Americans. More than four in 10 Americans either experienced a major unexpected expense over the past 12 months or had an immediate family member who had an unexpected expense, Bankrate found. (The survey didn’t specify the impact of that expense.) “Without emergency savings, you may not have money to cover needed home repairs,” says Signe-Mary McKernan, senior fellow and economist at the Urban Institute, a nonprofit organization that focuses on social and economic policy. “Similarly, without emergency savings, people could raid their retirement account.”
The findings are strikingly similar to two other reports, one by the U.S. Federal Reserve survey of more than 4,000 adults released in 2014. “Savings are depleted for many households after the recession,” it found. Among those who had savings prior to 2008, 57% said they’d used up some or all of their savings in the Great Recession and its aftermath. And another survey of 1,000 adults released last year by personal finance website GOBankingRates.com found that most Americans (62%) have less than $1,000 in their savings account (although that doesn’t include retirement or other investment accounts).

Why aren’t people saving? Millions of Americans are struggling with student loans, medical bills and other debts, says Andrew Meadows, a San Francisco-based producer of “Broken Eggs,” a documentary about retirement. Central bankers hiked their short-term interest rate target last month to a range of 0.25% to 0.50% from near-zero, but that’s still a small return for savings left in bank accounts. Indeed, personal savings rates as a percentage of disposable income dropped from 11% in December 2012 to 4.6% in August 2015, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and now hover at 5.5%.

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Listen To This Week’s Radio Show

Listen to my special New Years radio show. Today I review 2015 and give my views on 2016.-Lou

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Financial New Years Resolutions We Should All Make

I appeared on Fox and Friends on New Years a few years ago to discuss Financial New Years Resolutions. All comments still apply.-Lou

 

Top DHS Screening Official Unable To Provide Stats On Refugees

This video should scare the crap out of you. The incompetence of this Administration is breathtaking and dangerous.-Lou